How to calculate the probability of winning a bet
Many people who play betting often equate this hobby with science, particularly mathematics. This is not always justified, but there is still a commonality: in both fields, random events can occur, and in mathematics, their probability is determined by special formulas. How can this be applied to sports betting?
Indeed, if several variables capable of triggering random events are not taken into account when estimating a possible outcome, the final result may be far from what is expected. Sciences such as econometrics and statistics are used to study the possible outcome of a random event practically. If we talk about events from the world of sports, a special role is played by probability theory, a mathematical section focused on the study of random events and their properties.
Bookmaker's margin as an insurance against accidents
Probability theory in sports betting is the basis on which the betting business is built. All bookmakers put a margin in their odds, and it allows them to get income regardless of the outcome of the sporting event. In this case, the bookmaker quotes are set based on the probability of a particular outcome. If they are calculated incorrectly, the bookmaker will incur losses.
For example, in the UEFA Super Cup match bookmaker estimated the probability of Liverpool's victory in regulation time odds 1.77. If we divide 1 by this quotation and translate it into percentages the probability of the Merseyside victory will constitute 56.4%:
1 / 1.77 х 100 = 56.4%
If we similarly convert the odds of a draw and Chelsea's win into a percentage probability, we can find out the bookmaker's margin:
1 / 4 х 100 = 25%. This is the percentage probability of a draw. 1 / 4.2 х 100 = 23.8%. This is the probability of a win for the "aristocrats". As we know, the maximum percentage of probability is 100. So if you sum up the results and subtract 100 you know how much profit the bookie bets for the market of outcomes in this match: 56.4 + 25 + 23.8 - 100 = 5.2.
Mathematical Analysis: Why the Player Needs It
In addition to the analytical departments of betting shops, mathematics is also in demand for professional bettors. Translating statistical data into numbers and conducting a mathematical analysis of the planned betting, it is possible to determine the following indicators with a certain degree of probability:
- The number of shots to the goal line
- average corner kicks
- share of the realized goal chances from the total number of attacks
- number of fouls and shown yellow and red cards
- the current form of the club or a specific player etc.
In other words, mathematical calculation of bets to a certain extent increases the chances of a player in the "confrontation" with the bookmaker.